AGP Executive Report

NATO & Security: NATO’s Multinational Brigade in Latvia, led by Canada, has reached full operational readiness with troops from 14 countries—an upgrade that signals how seriously allies are preparing on the eastern flank. North Macedonia Film Funding: Skopje approved a Draft Law on Games of Chance that will redirect 3% of gambling levies to the North Macedonia Film Agency, restoring a funding stream abolished in 2016 and aiming to boost domestic production and scripts. Diplomacy & Connectivity: At NATO foreign ministers talks in Sweden, Bulgaria’s Petrova-Chamova stressed unity and predictable support for Ukraine, while she and North Macedonia’s Timco Mucunski pushed for concrete steps on Corridor VIII, including the cross-border railway tunnel. EU Trade Pressure: A Bruegel report warns Western Balkan firms face rising non-tariff barriers and border delays even as EU integration deepens—raising costs and slowing growth.

Trade Pressure on the Table: A new Bruegel paper warns Western Balkan firms are getting more tied into EU supply chains, but rising non-tariff barriers—border delays, regulatory mismatch, and tougher EU rules—could slow progress. EU Money Moves, Reforms Continue: The European Commission released Growth Plan funding for the Western Balkans—€49m to Albania, €44.2m to Montenegro, and €65.7m to North Macedonia—linked to reforms in competitiveness, innovation, and education/digitalisation, bringing totals to €212.8m, €89.3m, and €142.1m respectively. Energy Transition Meets Market Reality: Financing for renewables is getting harder as auction and merchant risks replace older support schemes, with CBAM and market instability adding pressure. Local Bottleneck in the Region: Bosnia and Herzegovina still can’t access its roughly €1bn allocation because a key reform-growth agreement hasn’t been reached amid political blockades. North Macedonia in the Crosswinds: Separately, North Macedonian coal workers face uncertainty as the country pushes toward ending coal dependence—critics say the renewable replacement and jobs plan aren’t ready yet.

EU Growth Plan Funding: The European Commission released fresh money under the Western Balkans Reform and Growth Facility—€49m for Albania, €44.2m for Montenegro, and €65.7m for North Macedonia—after its latest checks on reforms in competitiveness, innovation, and education/digitalization. Transport Pressure: In the region, carriers warn that new EU-linked rules for professional drivers could slow goods flows and raise costs, hitting supply chains already strained by labor shortages and border delays. Energy Transition Reality Check: At the Belgrade Energy Forum, speakers flagged how EU carbon rules are reshaping renewables and financing, while Western Balkan energy ministers stressed that regional cooperation and grid/gas interconnections are still the practical path to security. North Macedonia Coal Debate: Locals and unions are pushing back on the coal phase-out timetable, arguing the country needs renewable capacity and worker support ready before shutdowns. Scams & Security: North Macedonian nationals were charged in a US case over alleged “Trump Bucks” fraud targeting Americans with fake redeemable products.

Transport Pressure: Serbia and neighbors warn that stricter EU driver rules—plus the Schengen 90/180 stay limits and the coming Entry/Exit System—are already slowing cross-border freight, raising costs, and hitting competitiveness just as labor shortages and border delays persist. EU Roadmap for the Region: The European Commission released €49m to Albania, €44.2m to Montenegro, and €65.7m to North Macedonia under the Reform and Growth Facility, tied to progress on competitiveness, innovation, education, and digitalization. Energy Transition Reality Check: At the Belgrade Energy Forum, regional players said renewables financing is getting harder as auctions, negative prices, and CBAM reshape risk—while Western Balkan energy ministers keep pushing grid and gas interconnection projects for supply security. Wildlife Wins on Rivers: Europe dismantled a record number of dams and barriers in 2025 to reopen waterways for wildlife, including a push toward restoring thousands of miles of rivers by 2030. North Macedonia in the Mix: Ongoing debates around coal’s end and the need for workable alternatives remain a live pressure point as the country aligns with EU standards.

EU Growth Plan Cashflow: The European Commission released €49m to Albania, €44.2m to Montenegro, and €65.7m to North Macedonia under the Reform and Growth Facility, after the third reform request—boosting North Macedonia’s total received to €142.1m and tying support to business competitiveness, innovation, education, and digitalization. Regional Energy Pressure: Financing for renewables across Southeast Europe is getting harder as markets swing—moving from stable feed-in tariffs to auctions and merchant risk, with negative prices and CBAM adding uncertainty. Bosnia Blockade: In the background, political blockades in Bosnia and Herzegovina are still delaying roughly €1bn in EU support because the key reforms agreement hasn’t been reached. North Macedonia Transition Tension: Coal phase-out plans remain under scrutiny as critics warn the country may not have enough renewable capacity and job pathways ready in time. Cross-border Climate Security: Albania and North Macedonia met in Struga with OSCE support to tackle shared climate and environmental security risks through stronger parliamentary and local coordination.

EU Enlargement & AI: Lithuanian Renew Europe MEP Petras Austrevicius says EU expansion is inevitable but will come with transition periods, while AI should serve people first—especially in areas like medicine. North Macedonia in the spotlight: Two North Macedonian nationals have been charged in the US over a “Trump Bucks” scam that allegedly sold fake, worthless collectible “financial instruments” to elderly Americans. Energy security, regional links: Energy ministers in Athens stressed that Southeast Europe’s supply stability depends on faster grid and corridor integration; talks also highlighted the Vertical Gas Corridor and new Greece–North Macedonia and North Macedonia–Serbia gas interconnections. Carbon border pressure: At Belgrade Energy Forum, CBAM’s CO2 tax was linked to lower electricity market liquidity and reduced cross-border trade toward the EU. Disaster readiness: Rescue teams from Türkiye and the Balkans trained in Thessaloniki to improve joint emergency response. Health watch: Europe is monitoring hantavirus after a cruise-ship death, but risk is still rated very low.

Fraud Crackdown: Two North Macedonian nationals have been indicted in New York over a “Trump Bucks” scam, allegedly selling fake collectibles as if they were redeemable financial instruments tied to Donald Trump—prosecutors say victims were taken for hundreds of thousands of dollars. Energy Security Watch: In the region, ministers keep pushing faster grid and pipeline links to blunt Middle East-driven supply shocks, with talks in Athens highlighting the Vertical Gas Corridor and new gas interconnections between Greece–North Macedonia and North Macedonia–Serbia. Carbon Border Reality Check: At the Belgrade Energy Forum, industry voices warned that the EU’s CBAM CO2 tax is already reshaping electricity markets—hurting liquidity and cross-border trade—while decarbonizing heavy industry still has “no silver bullet.” Health Preparedness: Europe is monitoring hantavirus concerns after a cruise-ship outbreak, but there’s still no single EU playbook for quarantine and distancing. Local Environment & Governance: OSCE-backed talks in Struga focus on climate-related security risks and cross-border environmental cooperation.

Air Connectivity Push: Hermes Airports says Cyprus is expanding routes at Larnaka and Pafos despite Eastern Mediterranean instability, with Wizz Air adding Madrid and other carriers growing links across Europe and beyond. Energy Security in the Region: Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and North Macedonia met in Athens as ministers stress faster grid and gas interconnections to protect supply amid Middle East shocks—while CBAM is also flagged as a potential drag on decarbonization and regional electricity trade. North Macedonia in Focus: A North Macedonian-linked “Trump Bucks” fraud case is moving through US courts, alleging fake collectible “financial instruments” sold to vulnerable buyers. Health Watch: Europe is monitoring hantavirus concerns after a cruise-ship death linked to a more aggressive variant, but officials say the overall risk remains low. Local Environment Win: In North Macedonia, conservationists removed a wartime concrete barrier on the Pchinja River, helping native fish return and improving river flow.

World Cup build-up: Türkiye’s coach Vincenzo Montella named a 35-man provisional squad for the 2026 World Cup, with two warm-ups already set—June 1 vs North Macedonia in Istanbul and June 7 vs Venezuela—signaling a push for a fast, flexible squad ahead of camp. Carbon pricing pressure: A regional energy panel warned that the EU’s CBAM carbon border tax is already disrupting electricity trading in the Western Balkans, with Serbia reporting lower liquidity and weaker cross-border flows toward the EU. Health watch: Europe is keeping a close eye on hantavirus after new deaths linked to a more aggressive variant, but officials say the overall risk remains low and responses vary by country. Energy security drive: Ministers meeting in Athens stressed faster grid and gas corridor integration, including links between Greece–North Macedonia and North Macedonia–Serbia, as fuel supply volatility from the Middle East continues to reshape planning. Local win for rivers: Concrete barriers were removed from the Pčinja River, reopening 40 miles for freer flow and better water quality. North Macedonia in the mix: The week also included a reminder on wildlife safety after a wolf kept as a pet was found loose in Skopje and moved to quarantine at the zoo.

Carbon Border Shock: EU CBAM is already reshaping markets for aluminum, cement, electricity, steel and more, and a Belgrade Energy Forum panel says it’s cutting liquidity and cross-border power trade toward the EU—adding instability just as the region tries to decarbonize. Energy Security Push: In Athens, ministers from Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and North Macedonia stressed regional cooperation as the route to steadier supply, highlighting the East-West electricity push and the Vertical Gas Corridor logic—while North Macedonia and Serbia’s gas links are moving from planning toward delivery timelines. Health Watch: Europe is monitoring a hantavirus scare linked to an aggressive variant on a cruise ship, with the EU using crisis information-sharing while noting there’s no single prevention playbook. Disaster Readiness: Balkan search-and-rescue teams trained together in Thessaloniki, including North Macedonia, to tighten coordination for earthquakes and emergencies. Local Environment Win: In North Macedonia, conservationists removed a wartime concrete barrier on the Pčinja River, reopening about 40 miles for fish and healthier flow.

Energy Security Talks: Energy ministers in Athens (Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, North Macedonia) pushed regional cooperation as the fastest route to steadier electricity and gas supplies, highlighting the East-West power interconnection and the Vertical Gas Corridor as key diversification tools. Gas Interconnections: A separate focus on the Greece–North Macedonia and North Macedonia–Serbia links underlines a push to move more gas northward from LNG sources, with Serbia signaling major investment and timelines through 2027. Regional Emergency Readiness: Turkish and Balkan rescue teams trained together in Thessaloniki, running search-and-rescue drills and using an earthquake simulation truck to boost cross-border disaster response. Local Environment Win: In North Macedonia, conservationists removed a wartime concrete barrier on the Pchinja River, reopening 40 miles for freer fish movement and healthier water flow. UNESCO Milestone (Context): Bulgaria marked 70 years since joining UNESCO on May 17, 1956.

Low-Carbon Energy Training: Uzbekistan’s energy specialists joined China-backed low-carbon seminars, with North Macedonia among the participants, focusing on carbon-peaking, clean-energy skills, and the 2030 agenda. Disaster Preparedness: Turkish and Balkan rescue teams trained in Thessaloniki in a May 15–17 emergency exercise, including search-and-rescue drills and an earthquake simulation truck for public awareness—regional cooperation in action. Energy Security Push: Southeast Europe’s ministers kept stressing interconnectors and alternative supply routes, with talks in Athens linking electricity links and the Vertical Gas Corridor to diversification and steadier gas flows for the region. Food Prices Pressure: Turkey’s food inflation is reported as the highest in Europe, a reminder that energy and supply shocks quickly spill into household costs. Local Environment Win: In North Macedonia, conservationists removed a wartime concrete barrier on the Pchinja River, reopening 40 miles for freer fish and healthier water flow.

Energy Security Push: Energy ministers in Athens say Southeast Europe’s supply stability now depends on faster regional grid and pipeline integration, with Bulgaria urged to think “horizontally” beyond the old north-south gas logic. Vertical Corridor Momentum: Talks highlighted the Vertical Gas Corridor and new gas links—Greece–North Macedonia and North Macedonia–Serbia—aimed at diversifying sources and keeping gas flowing even amid Middle East shocks. Regional Cooperation on Renewables: Western Balkan ministers also stressed EU-aligned standards and renewables as priorities, while noting border fuel sales in North Macedonia and Montenegro jumped after tax cuts. Local Environment Win: In North Macedonia, conservationists removed a wartime concrete barrier on the Pčinja River, reopening 40 miles for native fish and improving water quality. Energy Company Update: HELLENiQ ENERGY reported 1Q26 results focused on maintaining core-market supply during the Middle East crisis, with refining and newly consolidated power assets driving performance.

Energy Security Talks: Energy ministers from Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and North Macedonia met in Athens, stressing that regional cooperation is the fastest route to steadier electricity and gas supplies amid the Middle East crisis. Gas Corridor Push: The focus included the Vertical Gas Corridor and new interconnections—Greece–North Macedonia gas links are under construction, while the North Macedonia–Serbia leg is planned for completion by end-2027, with Serbia aiming to invest about €1.2bn in gas infrastructure. EU Standards + Renewables: Western Balkan ministers also reiterated that aligning with EU rules and scaling renewables must stay on the agenda, even as fuel prices and supply risks bite. Local Environment Win: In North Macedonia, conservationists helped remove a wartime concrete barrier on the Pčinja River, reopening about 40 miles of habitat for native fish. Food Prices Pressure: Turkey’s food inflation is reported as the highest in Europe (and among the highest globally), with North Macedonia also seeing elevated food inflation—fueling broader cost-of-living strain across the region.

Energy Security Push: Greece’s deputy energy minister Kiril Temelkov says Southeast Europe’s best bet is faster regional cooperation—linking electricity and gas infrastructure so supply stays diversified even during the Middle East shock. Gas Corridor Momentum: Ministers in Athens also backed the Vertical Gas Corridor branch for the western Balkans, with Greece–North Macedonia gas interconnection under construction and North Macedonia–Serbia planned to finish by end-2027. Cost-of-Living Pressure: Turkey’s food inflation is reported as the 4th highest globally (34.55% annual), with North Macedonia listed at 8%—a reminder that energy volatility quickly hits everyday prices. North Macedonia in the Mix: Serbia–North Macedonia–Greece gas links are being framed as EU-aligned energy pragmatism, while HELLENiQ ENERGY reported 1Q26 results focused on keeping core markets supplied amid the crisis. Environment on the Ground: In a rare bright spot, wartime concrete was removed from the Pchinja River, reopening 40 miles for fish and cleaner flow.

Energy Security Talks: Greece’s deputy energy minister Kiril Temelkov says Southeast Europe’s energy safety depends on faster regional grid and pipeline integration, pointing to the East-West electricity interconnector and the Vertical Gas Corridor to diversify supply amid Middle East-driven market shocks. Food Prices Pressure: Turkey’s food inflation hit 34.55%—the highest in Europe—while North Macedonia is listed at 8%, adding fresh strain to household budgets across the region. North Macedonia in the Spotlight: A Skopje zoo says a wolf kept as a pet was found roaming and is now in quarantine, renewing warnings that wildlife captivity is dangerous and illegal. Regional Climate Diplomacy: In Struga, OSCE-supported talks brought Albanian and North Macedonian lawmakers together to tackle shared environmental risks and climate-linked security challenges. Energy Sector Update: HELLENiQ ENERGY reported 1Q26 results, stressing uninterrupted supply during the Middle East crisis and highlighting stronger refining margins plus new power contribution after Enerwave consolidation.